Buyer's or Sellers Market? I Need Help?
A: This is the first time in UrbanDigs history that I am reaching out to my readers for help! I got great feedback from my posts on whether or not the current Manhattan real estate market is a buyers or sellers market, but I want to take it a step further. I recently posted how I think the current market still favors sellers, and that hasn't changed, but how I go about reaching that conclusion might. I'm working on something here and need your input. Please use comments section! And thanks!
Everyone interested in New York City real estate wants to know if its a good time to buy. They want to know if the current market favors buyers or sellers. So what better place to discuss this topic than right here. When I think of what type of market it is, I look at certain things. I take into account:
(a) buyer activity at open houses & private showings
(b) who has control during bidding process / negotiability
(c) inventory trends or lack of
(d) seller willingness to trade below building average
(e) buyer willingness to pay asking or above / bidding wars
etc..These five items tell me alot about what is going on right now in the current market. Then I ask my colleagues the same question and based on all opinions, I report back to you guys over here on the digs.
Some people will think that more fundamental items have to do with whether or not its a buyers or sellers market; such as pricing, interest rates, and sales volume. But 2/3 of these items are lagging and hard to come by. I can not tell what a condo/co-op sells for until it closes and sales volume comes out at a lag as well. That goes against what I want to do here for you guys.
The ultimate goal of this site is to keep you educated on what is going on RIGHT NOW that can help in your investment decision making. That is why I discuss macro economics in addition to housing related topics. For this topic, we need to figure out WHAT YOU THINK DETERMINES A BUYERS OR SELLERS MARKET HERE IN MANHATTAN SO THAT I CAN BEST MEASURE IT.
CAN YOU HELP ME? Please speak out even if you never spoke out here before. There are no stupid answers and I encourage you to think outside the box. I know I am missing a few things and want to consider all ideas before proceeding with my idea.
Thanks!
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Comments (19)
your right, because I would think that sales volume and inventory data has a lot to do with whether or not its a buyers or sellers market. but that comes out later when its too late to act.
problem with anaylzing right now, is that is up to brokers and many people will think that info is biased. I wont. But others may. The only way to get info on what is going on today, is by brokers. Question is will people trust it.
Great blog. Keep it up.
Posted by joe | May 18, 2007 11:02 AM
joe - yea I thought of that. But thats the only way to get real-time data; from the brokers.
Did I miss any metrics that you can think of?
Posted by Noah | May 18, 2007 11:16 AM
Anecdotally, one can also look at the number of unsolicited letters from brokers, which seems to be pretty high
Posted by Weissman | May 18, 2007 11:54 AM
I think that this is a great idea... your are right in that many of the metrics available are lagging indicators. Adding a more subjective component based on open house activity, etc. brings the 'on foot' perspective into the picture, which is a more current synopsis of market conditions.
Perhaps if a form was created for brokers to track data such as open house attendance, bids, etc., you could aggregate the information and create a meter based on live statistics that are not used yet.
The tricky part is to create some form of an incentive mechanism to encourage registered brokers to fill out the data. Maybe starting out with a few trusted colleagues and then branching out?
Further down the line, a system could be created and sold to realty companies to use at open houses. A simple wireless device that brokers bring to their open houses and have people fill out instead of using paper. All these devices would then upload the data to a central data warehouse which would then crunch the numbers in real-time and update the meter.
Just some thoughts...
Cheers!
Posted by Sang | May 18, 2007 12:04 PM
Noah,
I own and rent studio condos in Mid West and Mid East. The simpler the better for me when deciding where the market is headed. One piece of data I use is the number of listings on the NYT real estate classifieds(closets thing to MLS). I will bring up condo studios Mid West between 400k -700k and get the results. What I have noticed in Clinton, for example, throughtout the Jan-April months there has been a slight decline in the number of listings. I have noticed right now that we are at 52 listings down from about 60-65 listings throughout the Jan-April months. So I am seeing with that measurement a tightening of inventory, in other words, the spring listing spike has been absorbed and demand is looking for more. Also, I have been looking for another purchase and every good deal that pops up the offers come flying in. A broker friend of mine listed a property at the Worldwide Plaza that caught my eye for its pricing competetiveness but by the end of the afternoon he had multiple offers. I hope this offers something.
Posted by steve | May 18, 2007 12:53 PM
great responses! Thanks to all as this does help me.
Keep em coming!!! I want more thoughts from buyers & sellers!
Posted by Noah | May 18, 2007 1:13 PM
I agree that activity data is the best forward looking indicator......but you have to take seasonality into account. You can't compare this Spring to last Winter you have to compare it to last Spring, etc. I also think that for the New York market, for reasons I gave in my recent post, the "finance and investment" employment trends and stock market are the most important economic indicators. (The stock market being more forward looking than Wall Street employment.) NYC residential real estate can still do very well even if the rest of the US economy is slow, if the stock market and deal making are going well. Supply is less of a factor in New York than demand due to the tight vacancy conditions.
Posted by jeff | May 18, 2007 1:18 PM
The industry likes the current system, It is flawed in favor of the developers/brokers/agents. Why make it any easier for the buyer. We need as mentioned in other answers a good tracking system. How that will come about is to be seen. With the current technology that we have and being in the information age the archaic system of keeping people in the dark can not last for long. It is too complicated to figure out if it is a buyers/sellers market.
Posted by brian | May 18, 2007 2:49 PM
interest rates...end of story
Posted by alan greenspan | May 18, 2007 3:30 PM
In my view, it's always a buyers market. The money is in the buyers bank account. Money talks and bullshit walks. Only stupid investors who don't know what they are doing are jacking up the prices for everyone else in NYC. If you have the cash, you could always find a good investment even if it is not real estate.
Posted by PC | May 18, 2007 8:07 PM
I am in the process of selling a one bedroom coop in the UES. We had an initial buyer that was rejected by the board. I had to relist the apartment a month ago. Within two weeks and one open house, we had multiple offers all of which were close to asking. There was a lot of demand for the apartment, which is in good condition and priced right. If the apartment is unrenovated and priced high, then it is a buyers' market. If the apartment is in move in condition and priced right (based on prior sales), then it is a sellers' market.
Posted by Jimmy | May 19, 2007 10:28 AM
We are sellers and active buyers (our current place is in contract and we have an accepted offer on our new place).
It's all about supply right now. There is a strong (but diminishing) demand, and the inventory *was* good in Jan/Feb, but by now is highly picked over.
We've been attending open houses every Sunday and throughout the week for three solid months. We've seen about 100 units. We have seen lots of buyers eagerly bidding on *new properties hitting the market that are priced right* - multiple bids, and best in final offers within days of the first open house.
I'd say it's a still a seller's market for a new, priced-right property. But for overpriced, stale or problematic properties - the opportunity to low-ball is there. Summer is coming!
Posted by LC | May 19, 2007 3:11 PM
Come on now UD. You know very well its a Buyer's market and getting better for buyers in slow mo as the contagion reaches NYC doorstep. Inventories are rising and pricing is down, with one exception... very high end.
Posted by brooklynchic | May 19, 2007 5:59 PM
brooklynchic - definitely dont think its a buyers market now here in Manhattan. Priced right property's should sell in 4-6 weeks. Reduced property's should sell in 8 weeks.
But yes, its mving towards a more buyer friendly market and in July/Aug it certainly will be!
Posted by Noah | May 19, 2007 7:50 PM
Seller here. Buyers now are a mixed bag, spring weather makes property shopping easy. A much higher percentage of my OH attendees are casually looking -- even casually offering! Had a huge fiasco (that cost me three weeks time) with a buyer who just 'fell in love' with my condo and really strung me along with a good offer, but was flaky and a mess to deal with in the end. So, I'd say that finding a serious, solid 'real-deal' buyer with an acceptable offer is the Seller's dream deal right now. Thanks for reading. -FH
Posted by Frank | May 19, 2007 8:33 PM
I have been in the market for an apartment for 2 months now, and have lost 2 bids. Its hard to say whether the market is in favor of buyers or sellers - it depends on the apartment and pricing, as someone above said. For a place that is priced right and in good condition, it is a seller's market. For places that are overpriced and need work, it is a buyer's market. The recent place that I bid for was perfect, and there was a bidding war and the highest bid got it. I expected the bidding war because within the first 30 minutes of its first open house, there were 14 names on the sign-in sheet!
The first place I bid for is back on the market, but I no longer want it after checking out the "perfect" place. Saw some more places today, and what a dump for the prices!! I literally laughed thinking whether the sellers/sponsors really consider buyers to be fools to pay for such trash. Am going to wait the market out. Also saw another beautiful place, but the floor plan did not fit my idea. So as you can see, it is a seller's market for a "good" apartment, and a buyer's for mediocre and overpriced places.
Posted by LoftLover | May 20, 2007 10:37 PM
BTW just to add, I did see a number of places today that had dropped prices, but were still high for the work that needed to be done.
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