Why NYC Real Estate is Seasonal
A: Because year end bonuses combine with a pickup in buyer activity during the first few months of a new year. Meanwhile, the summer is generally a time for NY'ers to get out of the city as much as possible with hot, humid weather settling in.
Its just the way it is. During the hot summer months of June, July & August most NY'ers want to jump from A/C filled work rooms to A/C filled cabs to A/C filled apartments. Being outside during these times with the heat reflecting off the building and streets, and brutal subway station waits, is a nightmare for all of us. Going out of your way to view apartments you might buy is usually not a priority. Rather, weekends at the hamptons and trips upstate or to VT/NH are the main thoughts in your head.
On the flip side, the months of January, February, & March are filled with year end bonuses, new year's resolutions, financial reflections, and residual holiday spirit. Plus, we are all here in the city! Open houses are usually filled with more would be buyers during the first 3 months of the year than they are during the dog days of summer!
Looking at it from a different viewpoint, humans are generally a group minded species. What does this have to do with it? Everything! If you go to an open-house and see no one there, you will probably think LESS of the apartment and be in no rush to place a bid. However, if you go to an open-house and see a ton of people there with you, you will be MORE interested in the property and probably have a feeling of more time-urgency in placing a bid.
Its during the first 3 months of the year that you will see more people at the open houses. I recall the first 4 months of last year being a time of packed open-houses, multiple bids, best & final declarations, and offers over asking prices. Will it be the same this year? Probably not due to all the negative press in the papers recently about housing slowing. But it certainly will be more active than the past 4-6 months which saw the NY markets slow down a bit.
To sum up, the NYC real estate market is seasonal. We are about to enter what normally is a very active period for our markets. I know I will be keeping my eyes open to see if we are indeed normally active, or if we are abnormally slow which could point to some deeper underlying problems in the housing industry.
